Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 194.388745 235.315507 285.774160 353.642275 444.249071 5.636112e+02 7.372705e+02
2025-06-08 140.931920 185.448775 247.044583 341.782066 490.281358 7.267013e+02 1.161755e+03
2025-06-15 122.508826 171.888181 246.736277 375.517960 608.500132 1.054110e+03 2.110977e+03
2025-06-22 104.544870 153.279097 232.022676 379.094425 676.346179 1.338477e+03 3.324345e+03
2025-06-29 93.141129 141.790737 224.887305 391.989176 766.909577 1.740423e+03 5.539163e+03
2025-07-06 82.198250 128.699931 211.545826 388.039307 819.136844 2.097085e+03 8.528102e+03
2025-07-13 78.173361 126.578713 217.331563 425.087419 991.751529 3.010965e+03 1.827556e+04
2025-07-20 74.125147 123.585418 220.592314 457.694390 1176.124552 4.271199e+03 4.321677e+04
2025-07-27 69.864695 119.419300 220.465236 482.197755 1356.303947 5.911195e+03 1.155798e+05
2025-08-03 65.470475 114.276362 217.141226 497.396498 1519.578261 7.938299e+03 3.727268e+05
2025-08-10 60.924368 108.164364 210.463382 501.207641 1645.712983 1.020023e+04 1.589098e+06
2025-08-17 56.116754 100.893443 199.841923 490.238840 1703.639700 1.219509e+04 9.746297e+06
2025-08-24 51.415144 93.504660 188.251343 474.704760 1741.315630 1.442530e+04 5.492195e+08
2025-08-31 47.244049 86.793119 177.297280 458.342648 1767.529055 1.690339e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 46.623649 87.680448 185.306745 508.375259 2220.047439 3.162597e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 44.094629 84.006634 180.969285 513.729890 2417.674547 4.531429e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 42.332200 81.860585 180.308828 532.971632 2749.584940 7.555454e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 39.860280 77.799075 173.771505 527.071584 2889.146596 1.057566e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 39.525253 78.718473 181.309747 582.722367 3682.578257 3.066680e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 38.889076 78.832718 186.597388 632.243684 4586.048770 1.170100e+06 NaN
2025-10-19 37.910813 77.986862 188.885285 669.779240 5508.106505 7.031651e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 36.649301 76.288150 188.255168 693.196408 6359.078373 1.363649e+08 NaN
2025-11-02 35.115062 73.736277 184.510439 699.084303 6990.217869 NaN NaN